Canada – Close to the Border

This installment provides an instance where something sounded simple but turned out to be much more complicated than originally expected. Supposedly a disproportionately large percentage of the Canadian population lived near its southern border with the United States. So that should be a pretty easy thing to fact check, right?


An Amorphous Band

U.S. sources generally cited a statistic based on 100 miles (about 160 kilometres) from the border. Meanwhile, Canadian sources often cited one based on 150 kilometres (about 93 miles). Either way, somewhere between 70% and over 90% of Canadians lived within a “narrow” band along its southern border. Even reputable sources that seemingly checked their facts rigorously could not seem to agree on a figure.

So I created a map to increase visual impact, choosing to use the larger width, 160 km. Notice just how little of Canada actually fits within that slender ribbon. It’s a powerful image. After all, this is the second largest country on earth. It extends northward well above the Arctic Circle and the vastness of its territory is immense. A 150 or 160 kilometer slice is nearly inconsequential.


Follow the Cities

Toronto skyline. Photo by Oriol Salvador;  (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
Toronto, firmly within the band

Yet, eight of Canada’s ten largest cities hug the southern border within the wedge. Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa, Québec City, Winnipeg, Hamilton and London all sit there. Only Calgary and Edmonton lay beyond it. So this simple observation starts to support the claim. Nonetheless, it still doesn’t answer the basic question. What percentage of the population actually lives within that narrow band?

The World Factbook published by the United State’s Central Intelligence Agency claims that “approximately 90% of the population is concentrated within 160 km of the US border.” But then National Geographic contradicts this by stating that “an estimated 75 percent of Canadians live within 161 kilometers (100 miles) of the U.S. border.”

Both can’t be right.


Preponderance of Evidence

For the tiebreaker I refered to Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada. They publish “Canada World View”. Specifically I referenced their Winter 2005 article, “A Border People”. It offered a fascinating yet brief commentary by Norman Hillmer, a Professor of History and International Affairs at Carleton University. I’d recommend reading it in its entirety but unfortunately it’s no longer in print.  Too bad. It included a statement quite appropriate to this issue:

“Seventy-five percent of Canada’s population resides in a narrow 150-kilometre band pushing up against the U.S., with close ties south of the line. We are a border people. The border is our livelihood. The border is our identity.”

Sorry, CIA and all you other sources who publish dissenting statistics. I’m inclined to go with National Geographic and Professor Hillmer. However I’ll hedge my bet. I’ll gladly retract this conclusion if anyone finds original scholarly research that leads to a different answer.


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9 responses to “Canada – Close to the Border”

  1. […] in mind that 75% of that population lives roughly within 100 miles (150-161km) of the border.  And now for your listening […]

  2. Stephanie Avatar

    Tell the NBC commentator to get her facts straight. She just commented, during a weird clip about polar bears that aired during the Olympics, “We already know that 90% of the population lives between their border and ours.” Indicating that their is some little strip of land that belongs to no country, where almost all Canadians live. We had to look it up. Too bad NBC can’t even run a fact check on google.

  3. Ian Avatar
    Ian

    I know it’s probably negligible but what about the border with Alaska, do many Canadians live within a 100 miles of it?

    1. koni Avatar
      koni

      a whole bunch live there, like atleast 7, i think i saw an 8th there once but that might have just been a polar bear

    2. Biggfoot44 Avatar
      Biggfoot44

      The total population of Yukon Territory is 48K . 25K live in Whitehorse , the Capitol , which is almost 300 miles by road , or about 225 miles by air to the border .

      So no , not many Canadians live near the Alaska border compared to the Southern border .

  4. Brittany Avatar
    Brittany

    this is not what i was looking for, very bad answer. this did not help / answer my question whatsoever.

    1. Twelve Mile Circle Avatar

      I’m not sure how I should have been able to read your mind 3.5 years ago when I wrote the post so that the answer you “expected” today would be here waiting for you. Perhaps you should lower your expectations.

  5. Doug Palmer Avatar
    Doug Palmer

    What is not mentioned is why people live where they do. Its not to be near to the US. Montreal and Quebec City were founded long before the US existed. The US moved close to them. Toronto was founded by Loyalists who wanted to get away from the United States, not to be close to it. As well Toronto is about 20 miles from the border but its located in the middle of Lake Ontario. Vancouver was founded to serve the interests of the local area around the time when the Oregon area was in dispute. As well, of the border between Canada and the lower 48 states, 55% is on water, with much of the land border going through mountains and wilderness. Alberta and Saskatchewan have larger populations then the bordering states.

  6. Duncan Avatar
    Duncan

    I took the 2011 census numbers from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_census_divisions_of_Canada_by_population

    and calculated the distance from each census division to the US border.

    The number I get is 77% of Canadians lived within 100 miles of the US in 2011.

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